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27 mei 2012

'De hel is de waarheid te laat ingezien'

Door Joe Romm, Climate Progress, 23 mei 2012

Journalist Bill Blakemore has another great piece on ABC’s website:
'The Great Big Book of Horrible Things': WWII and Climate Change
What our great failure in the 1930s may teach about facing the rapid assault of manmade global warming  (Or 'Hell is the truth seen too late'.)
[...] Blakemore cites the great quote from 18th century philosopher Thomas Hobbes, 'Hell is truth seen too late'. Since I wrote a book on climate a few years back, Hell and High Water, that quote seems particularly apt to me for climate [Romm ontleende de titel van zijn studie aan de gelijknamige oorlogsfilm uit 1954; K].

Blakemore’s piece starts by looking at The Great Big Book of Horrible Things: The Definitive Chronicle of History’s 100 Worst Atrocities by Matthew White, noting:
The world’s climate scientists are in effect telling us that one part of the truth we must now try to see is humanity’s ability - or lack of it - for collective prevention of enormous manmade disaster, atrocity.
The record is worrisome.
He then examines humanity’s problematic track record of not preventing catastrophes even when many powerful people were aware of what was happening or about to happen, including the great atrocities of World War II. And no, there is no direct analogy being made (see 'Climate Science Disinformers Are Nothing Like Holocaust Deniers').

Zie ook:

Humans Are Not Like Slowly Boiling Frogs... We Are Like Slowly Boiling Brainless Frogs
Door Joe Romm, Climate Progress, 28 mei 2012

Emissions gap looks set to increase if government action doesn’t step up
Climate Action Tracker, 24 mei 2012

Many governments do not appear to be implementing policies to meet their 2020 emission reduction pledges, and could increase – not shrink, the gap between real emissions and what’s needed to keep global temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 degC, according to the Climate Action Tracker, a joint project of Climate Analytics, Ecofys and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
[...] The planet is heading to a temperature rise of at least 3.5 degC, but that could be even more if the 2020 pledges are not met. For a visual analysis of the impacts of such a temperature rise, see our Durban infographic (PDF).

[Volgens een andere op wetenschappelijke literatuur en de politieke stand van zaken gebaseerde prognose, The Climate Scoreboard, stevenen we bij de huidige beleidsvoornemens zelfs af op 4,5°C in 2100; K].

Current pledges far from implementing agreed goal

Mondiale uitstoot broeikasgassen in verschillende scenario's. Klik om uit te vergroten.

The figure [...] [above] illustrates the current status of negotiations with emission pathways representing the 'best-estimate' of the effects of implementing the current reduction proposals and accounting provisions by both developed and developing countries. [...] These target pathways can be compared to a 'reference' pathway of emissions growth in the absences of the targets and pledges, showing that the reductions are significant. However, comparison to emission pathways that are consistent with 1.5 and 2°C warming limits, it is clear that currently proposed reductions are not enough and are not consistent with the Cancun agreement.

IEA: Global CO2 Emissions Hit New Record In 2011, Keeping World On Track For 'Devastating' [...] [6°C] Warming
Door Joe Romm, Climate Progress, 25 mei 2012

[...] as [IEA Chief Economist Fatih] Birol told Reuters [...]:
'When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius [11°F], which would have devastating consequences for the planet.'
Global carbon-dioxide emissions increase by 1.0 Gt in 2011 to record high
IEA (International Energy Agency), 24 mei 2012

Global CO2 emissions hit record in 2011 led by China-IEA
Reuters, 24 mei 2012

[Let op: in het arikel staat dat Birol zegt dat we afstevenen op 6°C 'by 2050'. Dit is onjuist, het moet zijn: 2100; K.]

Time For Outrage On Behalf of the Planet
Door Bill McKibben, Common Dreams, 7 juni 2012

[Bekende] klimaatscepticus: broeikaseffect bestaat toch
De Volkskrant, 30 juli 2012

En m'n blognotities:
Realistisch doemdenken
Helse hitte en hoog water
De oplossingen op een rij
De opwarmende aarde als kosmische Titanic
'Doemrapporten maken mensen murw'
Het grimmige verloop van klimaatverandering
6 vuile energiebronnen die de aarde kapot maken
Hansen: aanpak CO2-uitstoot over 10 jaar is te laat
'Nederland staan catastrofale overstromingen te wachten'
Stijging zeespiegel in kaart gebracht: Nederlantis
Zeespiegel van ijsvrije aarde

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