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16 juni 2009

Business as usual betekent 5 to 6°C temperatuurstijging in grote delen VS

By Joe Romm, Climate Progress, June 15, 2009

If humanity stays near our current greenhouse gas emissions path, then Americans face hell — every state will be red: the thermometer in this landmark U.S. government report puts warming at 5 to 6°C (9 to 11°F) over the vast majority of the inland U.S. - and that is only the average around 2090 (compared to 1961-1979 baseline). On this emissions path - the IPCC’s A2 scenario - most of the inland United States will be warming about 0,56°C (1°F) a decade by century’s end. Worse, we are on pace to exceed the A2 scenario (...).

(...) On Tuesday at 1:30 PM EST, the US Global Change Research Program is releasing its long-awaited analysis of Global Climate Change Impacts in United States with NOAA as lead agency. I’m told the NYT will have an exclusive up tonight. But impatient CP readers need look no further than here for the third draft of the report, which has been online since April 27. That’s where I got the figure above from. (You can see the letters F and T from "DRAFT" stamped across the figure. I'll update this post with the final figures when they are online.)

(...) Bottom line: By century’s end, extreme (i.e. peak) temperatures of up to 50°C (122°F) would threaten most of the central, southern, and western U.S. Even worse, Houston and Washington, DC could experience temperatures exceeding 37°C (98°F) for some 60 days a year.

Two of the comments on Climate Progress:

Born in the 80s Says:
June 15th, 2009 at 7:23 pm

2080-2100? Who cares, I’ll probably be dead by then.

And if I’m still alive at that point, I still wouldn’t care. Giving up big cars, McMansions, and meat for a few degrees of temperature difference is not a tradeoff I or many other people are willing to make.

Oh, and did I mention that I’d be enjoying the milder winters?

Jim Beacon Says:
June 16th, 2009 at 12:18 am

'Born in the 80's' comment, is, unfortunately, a typical Joe Six Pak reaction to these kind of long-term projections. That is why such reports are useless unless they are coupled in the same breath or paragraph with solid reasons WHY a 10 degree F temperature rise is deadly: Because most of our agriculture will fail with that kind of warming, because supplies of fresh water will dry up, because most of entire American South will become a desert, because insects and diseases will spread much more rapidly, because there will be a lot more catastrophic wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, etc.

If journalists don’t make it a point to always connect the consequences to the temperature rise in their writing, then the average American (who usually doesn’t bother to think beyond the next lane change) will simply shrug and say, 'So what? I’ll just turn up my air-conditioning'.

Also see:

Obama targets US public with call for climate action
By Suzanne Goldenberg, The Guardian, June 16, 2009

Climate Change Impacts
Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: Report Home Page

The most comprehensive, authoritative report on Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States was released on Tuesday June 16th, 2009. This report presents, in plain language, the science and impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It focuses on climate change impacts on U.S. regions and various aspects of society and the economy such as energy, water, agriculture, and health. A comprehensive series of web-pages were developed that highlight the findings and major conclusions of the report and contain complete downloadable files of the report, as well as a host of additional content on climate change impacts on the U.S

Climate Change Melts the Rockies
WorldWatch Institute, Jun 17, 2009

Washington, D.C.-A perfect storm in the Rocky Mountains driven by population growth, a warming climate, and economic development has put both the region's ecosystems and its economy in jeopardy, according to the latest issue of World Watch magazine.

The average winter temperature in the U.S. West has risen roughly 1.4 degrees Celsius over the last century. Residents have witnessed the manifestations of this change in smaller mountain snowpacks, an increase in rainfall over snowfall, and a rise in winter lows.

These changes put many species with specific habitat and temperature needs at risk, but they also threaten to destroy the very natural areas that are sustaining the region's economic prosperity. Energy development, water scarcity, and growing populations all have the potential to stall the steady growth this region has enjoyed to date.

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