blogspot visitor

30 oktober 2007

De aarde: een prognose

By Amy Goodman, Democracy Now! / Alternet, October 30, 2007

One of the world's leading scientists on global warming talks about the future of the planet, its species and our energy future.

A group of scientists in Britain are warning global warming could wipe out more than half the earth's species in the next few centuries. That finding appears in a new study published by researchers at the University of York. Scientists examined the relationship between climate and extinction rates over the past 500 million years. They determined that rising temperatures caused three of the earth's four biggest periods of mass extinction.

Today, we're going to spend the hour with one of the world's leading scientists studying climate change. His name: Tim Flannery. He's an Australian mammologist and palaeontologist. As a field zoologist, he has discovered and named more than sixty species. He has been described as being in league with the all-time great explorers like Dr. David Livingstone.

Here in this country, Tim Flannery might be best known as author of the bestselling book The Weather Makers: The History and Future Impact of Climate Change. Earlier this year, he was named the 2007 Australian of the Year. He was awarded the prize by the Australian Prime Minister John Howard. He joins us today in Santa Fe, New Mexico for the hour.

Let op: Flannery noemt als de vier gevaarlijkste positieve feedbackloops:
- het stoppen van de Golfstroom;
- het sterven van de regenwouden;
- het vrijkomen van methaan uit de oceaanbodems;
- het smelten van het noordpoolijs.

Wonderlijk: de Gouden kikker (of pad) is volgens Flannery de eerste gedocumenteerde diersoort die is verdwenen door de opwarming van de aarde:

Well, look, that animal was really, I think, the first well documented victim of this global climate change that we're about -- or that is looming on our horizon. It was a beautiful animal found just up in the mossy forests, and the American Indians had wonderful stories about it. They didn't see it very often, because it only came out a couple of weeks a year. And it was golden, of course, a wonderful animal. They believed if you ever found one, you would find great happiness. And they tell stories of one person who found such a toad and didn't know what happiness was. Another one just couldn't bear the happiness that he had found. And a bit like us humans, really, we don't recognize the beauty and wonder of the world that we have, and we seem willing to trade it for such short-term benefits.

Flannery blijkt grote verwachtingen te hebben van geothermische energie (in centraal-Australië is een hittegebied ontdekt op slechts vier kilometer onder het aardoppervlak) en blijkt in het algemeen nog optimistisch te zijn over het vermogen van de mensheid de economie op een andere (energie-)leest te schoeien:

AMY GOODMAN: You have painted such a dismal scenario of what can happen with global climate change, global warming. And yet, you remain hopeful; why?

TIM FLANNERY: Because the solutions are actually within our grasp, you know? When you see the changes that humanity has performed in the past, you know, whether it was World War II, where we went from having a sort of very primitive sort of technology to having rocketry and nuclear weapons, which are not a great thing, but they're an amazing technical triumph, you know, radar and so forth, we know we can take these technologies that are now in nascent form and scale them up and produce a cleaner and greener world.

And the other thing, if I could say to you, is that I'm confident because I can see that this is going to be the great project of the twenty-first century. This is what will enthuse people. This is what will make people wealthy. It's a bit like in the nineteenth century, you know, the emphasis was on slavery and universal suffrage, and all of those things that we benefit from so much today, those changes. The twenty-first century is going to be about sustainability. It will be the great energizing project, and none of us can afford to be left behind.

29 oktober 2007

Groene energie uit algen

Gelukkig, een hoopgevende ontwikkeling. 

Zoeken naar het groene algengoud
Door Ferry Haan, de Volkskrant, 20 oktober 2007


...CO2 omzetten in waterstof (dat bij verbranding géén CO2 geeft!); als dat waar is en effiënt kan worden gemaakt, ligt een prachtige nieuwe energiebron in het verschiet.

Zie ook:
www.algaelink.com
Algaelink-filmpje over 'algenoliepers' om biodiesel uit de algen te winnen

Over het totale energierendement (en de bijbehorende CO2-balans) zwijgt de FAQ van Algealink helaas in alle talen. "The cost will vary based on your location (...) Therefore, it is very important to start with the demo reactor so you can experience the total cost in real time (...) It is best to look locally and determine which is most cost effective for you". Mijn natte-vingerindruk is dat er behoorlijk wat energie in het productieproces van de biodiesel gaat zitten en dat er alleen bij véél zonlicht misschien sprake kan zijn van netto - totale productieproces tot en met verbranding van de olie - substantieel minder CO2-uitstoot dan bij gewone diesel. Of dat genoeg zal zijn om zoden aan de dijk te zetten, moet nog maar blijken en zal waarschijnlijk sterk afhangen van het verder innoveren van het proces.

Links:
Algen barsten van energie (Ode, december 2006)
Is de nieuwe diesel gemaakt van algen? (Sync, 5 februari 2007)
- waarop onder meer deze skeptische respectievelijk optimistische reacties:

"Ik ben bang dat er heel wat energie nodig is om de algen uit te persen en de olie te zuiveren.
En daarnaast moet je nog eens 3x zoveel (bio-)ethanol toevoegen om er een bruikbare brandstof van te maken. Helaas ontbreekt de berekening hoeveel landbouwgrond er nodig is om zo idioot veel ethanol te produceren.
En al die moeite om de Amerikanen in hun dikke SUV's te kunnen laten rijden."

"Dit biedt de mogelijkheid om 2x van de algen gebruik te maken.
Laat de algen eerst waterstof produceren. Gebruik dit vervolgens om de machinerie aan te drijven voor het persen en produceren van de diesel.
Wanneer je dit combineert met de efficiëntie van de waterstof generatoren (docu: "de waterstofrevolutie" van Tegenlicht), kan dit heel wat moois opleveren."

27 oktober 2007

Pentagon bezorgd over klimaatverandering

Vreemd. Hetzij dit is domweg aan me voorbijgegaan destijds, hetzij er is in de bekende (Nederlandse) media nauwelijks aandacht besteed:

'Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us'

· Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war
· Britain will be 'Siberian' in less than 20 years
· Threat to the world is greater than terrorism

Mark Townsend and Paul Harris in New York, The Observer, February 22, 2004

Kennelijk in elk geval ook door Het Parool opgemerkt:
http://www.dossierx.nl/content/view/60/61/

De voorspellingen in het rapport zijn wel érg kras - zoals de mogelijkheid dat grote delen van Nederland al in 2006 overstroomd zouden worden ten gevolge van zware stormen en dat ergens tussen 2010 en 2020 de temperatuur in Europa met gemiddeld 4 graden Celsius daalt; West Europa op weg naar een Siberisch klimaat met hete, droge zomers en steenkoude winters. Van de andere kant: we hadden wel snel na het rapport de watersnood in New Orleans ten gevolge van Katrina.
Het is natuurlijk mogelijk dat in militaire kringen (denk aan de vele satelieten van de Amerikaanse en Europese defensie) alarmerende informatie is gaan circuleren over klimaatparameters, zoals de gesteldheid van de poolijskappen. Ook kan het een curieus idealistisch initiatief zijn van een man die zijn einde voelt naderen, Andrew Marshall, de 82-jarige leider van een denktank binnen het Pentagon die zich richt op toekomstige bedreigingen van de VS.
Merkwaardige zaak, dit rapport.

Latere toevoeging:

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta: ‘Climate Change Has A Dramatic Impact On National Security’
Door Arpita Bhattacharyya, Climate Progress, 7 mei 2012

22 oktober 2007

Feedbackloops opwarming aarde



Als ik me niet vergis (zie ook bijvoorbeeld http://earthsociety.org/index.php?pgxfer=210 ) zijn er vijf belangrijke, positieve feedbackloops aan het werk die de opwarming van de aarde voortdurend versnellen:

1. Opwarming -> smeltende ijslagen -> minder reflectie zonnestraling -> versnelde opwarming

2. Opwarming -> smeltende permafrost -> vrijkomende methaan -> versnelde opwarming

3. Opwarming -> grotere luchtvochtigheid -> meer absorptie stralingswarmte -> versnelde opwarming

4. Opwarming -> oceanen nemen minder kooldioxide op -> versnelde opwarming

5. Opwarming -> verdorrende vegetatie, meer bosbranden -> minder koodioxide-opname door bos -> versnelde opwarming

Zijn er ook feedbackloops gaande die de klimaatverandering vertragen? Ja, waarschijnlijk onder meer wolkenvorming (een ander, maar ik meen minder sterk effect van toenemende luchtvochtigheid dan dat onder punt 3. hierboven) en minder absorptie van zonlicht bij minder vegetatie/bos. En wellicht het tot stilstand komen van de warme Golfstroom, wat voor onze regio minder prettig is.

Toegevoegd op 30 oktober: Tim Flannery noemt als de drie gevaarlijkste positieve feedbackloops: - het stoppen van de Golfstroom (volgens hem dus een positieve, geen negatieve feedbackloop); - het sterven van de regenwouden; - het vrijkomen van methaan uit de oceaanbodems; - het smelten van het noordpoolijs.

Update juli 2021: Inmiddels wijst steeds meer onderzoek uit dat het effect van de opwarming van de aarde op wolken een positieve feedbackloop is: de opwarming wordt versterkt door veranderingen in wolken(dekken).

Zie ook Google zoekresultaat op "climate change" en "positive feedback" (bijvoorbeeld www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/05/060522151248.htm) en dit diagram op deze pagina met uitleg: "Feedback Mechanisms in Climate"

Linkse moslims

The Making of the Muslim Left
By Ali Eteraz, Comment Is Free, Alternet, October 16, 2007

De gelegde parallel met de 'christian right' is op zich terecht. De bepleite tactische coulantie t.a.v. de hijab dubieus.

Horde apen doodt locoburgemeester

De plaatsvervangend burgemeester van de Indiase hoofdstad New Delhi is gisteren overleden nadat hij door apen was aangevallen.
NRC, 22 oktober 2007

11 oktober 2007

Voorraden drinkwater verdwijnen door klimaatverandering

By Tara Lohan, AlterNet, October 11, 2007

Thanks to global warming, pollution, population growth, and privatization, we are teetering on the edge of a global crisis.


(...)

We depend on water for survival. It circulates through our bodies and the land, replenishing nutrients and carrying away waste. It is passed down like stories over generations -- from ice-capped mountain
Bericht publiceren
s to rivers to oceans.

Historically water has been a facet of ritual, a place of gathering and the backbone of community.

But times have changed. "In an age when man has forgotten his origins and is blind even to his most essential needs for survival, water has become the victim of his indifference," Rachel Carson wrote.

As a result, today, 35 years since the passage of the Clean Water Act, we find ourselves are teetering on the edge of a global crisis that is being exacerbated by climate change, which is shrinking glaciers and raising sea levels.

We are faced with thoughtless development that paves flood plains and destroys wetlands; dams that displace native people and scar watersheds; unchecked industrial growth that pollutes water sources; and rising rates of consumption that nature can't match. Increasingly, we are also threatened by the wave of privatization that is sweeping across the world, turning water from a precious public resource into a commodity for economic gain.

Latere toevoeging:

Global Water Scarcity: Can We Solve It?
Door Darci Palmquist, Cool Green Science / Climate Progress, 5 maart 2012

Bossen en klimaat gaan in rook op

Greenpeace, 10 October 2007

Sumatra, Indonesia — Never has the threat to the world’s forests been more acute nor the risk of dangerous climate change so imminent. With about one-fifth of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions being caused by forest destruction we are highlighting how Indonesia is at the heart of this problem.
Indonesian forests are being destroyed faster than any other major forested country, for logging and oil palm plantations.

This destruction has obvious, immediate consequences for the unique plants, animals and people who call the Indonesian forests home. These forests contain between 10 and 15 percent of all known species of plants, mammals and birds that make up the world’s treasure chest of biodiversity. Orangutans, elephants, tigers, rhinoceros, more than 1,500 species of birds and thousands of plant species are all part of the country’s natural legacy. But many of these unique forest-dwelling animals, including the orangutan and the Sumatran tiger, are on the brink of extinction.

While the loss of forests is bad enough, there's a double blow for the environment from forest clearance in Indonesia. Beneath most of this forest are thick layers of peat that lock up millions of tones of carbon. Once the forest is cleared the peat swamp is drained and often also burned to make the soil more suitable for palm oil plantations. Burning of the forest and peat results in huge amounts of greenhouse gases making Indonesia the world’s third largest climate polluter.

10 oktober 2007

IJskappen smelten snel

By Paul Brown, AlterNet, October 10, 2007

The talk of sea level rise should not be in centuries, it should be decades or perhaps even single years. And coastal regions like New York and Florida are in the front line for devastation.

It is hard to shock journalists and at the same time leave them in awe of the power of nature. A group returning from a helicopter trip flying over, then landing on, the Greenland ice cap at the time of maximum ice melt last month were shaken. One shrugged and said:"It is too late already."

What they were all talking about was the moulins, not one moulin but hundreds, possibly thousands. "Moulin" is a word I had only just become familiar with. It is the name for a giant hole in a glacier through which millions of gallons of melt water cascade through to the rock below. The water has the effect of lubricating the glaciers so they move at three times the rate that they did previously.

Some of these moulins in Greenland are so big that they run on the scale of Niagra Falls. The scientists who accompanied these journalists on the trip were almost as alarmed. That is pretty significant because they are world experts on ice and Greenland in particular. We were visiting Ilulissat, Greenland, once a stronghold of Innuit hunters but now with so little ice that the dog sleds are in danger of falling through even in the depth of winter. But it is not the lack of sea ice that worries scientists and should be of serious concern to the inhabitants of coastal zones across the world. Cities like New York and states like Florida are in the front line.

Scientists know this already, but just to give you some idea of the problem, the Greenland ice cap is melting at such a fast rate it is triggering earthquakes as pieces of ice several cubic kilometres in size break up.

Scientists say the acceleration of melting and subsequent speeding up of giant glaciers could be catastrophic in terms of sea level rise and make previous predictions published this year by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) far too low.

Paul Brown was the environment correspondent for The Guardian newspaper for 16 years and has worked in newspaper journalism for more than 40 years. He has written extensively about climate change, population, biodiversity, pollution, energy, desertification, and ocean management, and is the author of several books on the environment.
www.globalwarningbook.com


Zie ook de blognotitie 'Afglijgevaar Zuidpoolijs' (17 mei 2007)

De eerst reacties op Alternet.org zijn op zijn zachtst gezegd skeptisch, zoals deze:

Here's a report from Ohio State University where they study Polar Ice at the Byrd Polar Research Center -

Scientists here are calibrating data from NASA’s Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), and using the satellite to study the ice streams that carry ice from the interior of the WAIS out to sea.

Early results of the study clearly show that all the ice streams of the WAIS have changed substantially in the last five years, but each in its own way, explained Bea Csatho, research scientist at Ohio State's Byrd Polar Research Center (BPRC) and head of the calibration project.

Csatho presented those early results on December 10 in a poster session at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

According to the ICESat data, some WAIS ice streams are thickening and others are thinning; some are flowing faster than before, and others are slowing down.

Waar een andere reactie prompt op inhaakt met:

"The interesting line in your post was that this research was found in a "poster session". I'm not sure most people would know what a poster session is but it is held for people whose research wasn't quite good enough to pass the blind review process for publication. Many times the conferences publicly state that the poster session pieces are not reviewed at all and that the sponsoring organization does not stand by the research. I would put as much credibility in this research as I would a caller to talk radio."

09 oktober 2007

Hebben progressieven een verkeerd idee van verandering?

The authors of the new book Break Through argue that scaring people with bad news about the environment is no way to get them to change - what's needed is a dream we all want to be a part of.

By Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger, AlterNet, October 8, 2007


Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus have written a book - Break Through: From the Death of Environmentalism to the Politics of Possibility (Houghton Mifflin, 2007) - that challenges the way we are used to thinking about solving social problems. The conventional wisdom writ large, especially for progressives, is that when things are bad, people need to be scared into changing their habits, whether it is to protect the 50 million people who lack health care, or the behaviors that contribute to potential climate catastrophe. Most of us assume that we have severely limited resources, that growth is bad, and we need ever-increasing amounts of regulation to save the future.

In their book, Nordhaus and Shellenberger suggest something very different. They argue strongly that scaring people is no way to make change. For example the 250 million people with health care will not be inclined to fight for those who don't have it, unless they feel confident in the future, and that the health system will improve for them too, since people don't want what exists to get worse in the process of expanding care.

The same for climate catastrophe: As Nordhaus and Shellenberger put it: "Cautionary tales and narratives of eco-apocalypse tend to provoke fatalism, conservatism, and survivalism among voters - not the rational embrace of environmental policies. This research is consistent with extensive social-science research that strongly correlates fear, rising insecurity, and pessimism about the future with resistance to change."

'Mountaintop removal' kolenwinning sloopt bergtoppen

By Antrim Caskey, AlterNet, Posted October 9, 2007

Thanks to Bush, Big Coal uses 3 million pounds of explosives each day in West Virginia to fuel our addiction to dirty energy.

On a calm, clear morning in the forested mountains of southern West Virginia, 12-year-old Chrystal Gunnoe played outdoors in the green mountain valley where her family has lived for hundreds of years. It was Veteran's Day and a school holiday. Chrystal's mother, Maria Gunnoe, 38, was inside when she heard her daughter yell for help.

Gunnoe rushed outside to find Chrystal coming towards her. Chrystal was coughing and struggling to breath, running from a strange-looking cloud that was moving down the valley and headed towards their house. Gunnoe would later learn the strange cloud came from something known as a "slow burning blast" -- an explosion set at the coal mine above her home that failed to ignite and instead burned slowly, releasing a wet toxic cloud of nitrogen oxide and carbon dioxide.

Gunnoe lives in Bob White, W.Va., where coal companies have become increasingly unfriendly neighbors. Her home is surrounded by thousands of acres where a radically destructive type of coal mining is practiced - mountaintop removal/valley fill (MTR) coal mining - and it's turning Maria Gunnoe's life upside down.

Later toegevoegd:

Why the Democratic Party Platform Should Call for End to Mountaintop Removal Mining
Door Jeff Biggers, Alternet, 27 augustus 2012

Slavernij in het Amerika van vandaag

The new book Nobodies: Modern American Slave Labor and the Dark Side of the Global Economy, goes after the U.S. companies that support slave labor.

By Suzi Steffen, AlterNet, October 8, 2007

What do you call it when those who cross the Mexican-U.S. border get charged thousands of dollars for a ride to a job where their employer makes them pay rent for unspeakably bad living conditions and board for the food they can only buy at the company store and where that employer patrols with dogs, trucks and thugs so the workers can't leave?

John Bowe calls it slavery. And it's happening in the United States right now, he says. Bowe's newest book, Nobodies: Modern American Slave Labor and the Dark Side of the Global Economy, makes the case using three specific cases and geographical areas to show just how much workers in the U.S. get undermined and hurt by these practices.

Rijkdom van de wereld valt toe aan elite

A new business study on global household wealth documents how the world's wealth is continuing to concentrate in the pockets of the awesomely affluent.
By Sam Pizzigati, Too Much: A Commentary on Excess and Inequality, October 8, 2007

06 oktober 2007

VS: christelijk fundamentalisme op scholen

The Religious Right's New Tactics for Invading Public Schools
By Rob Boston, Church and State, October 4, 2007

As the school year gets under way, public schools around the nation are under siege from Religious Right pressure groups determined to turn them into instruments of evangelism.

Google als metabewustzijn

Google neemt hersenfuncties van het individu over. Geheugen uiteraard. Maar uit onderstaand artikel blijkt dat Google ook nauw betrokken wil raken bij vragen als 'Welke baan zal ik nemen?' en 'Wat zal ik morgen doen'. Google ontpopt zich als metabewustzijn dat het bewustzijn van het individu beïnvloedt en (her)vormt. Nu kan je dat ook zeggen van sinds mensenheugenis bestaande fenomenen als orale traditie, overlevering, zeden en gewoonten, boeken, bibliotheken en onderwijs et cetera (denk ook aan het collectieve onderbewuste van Jung). Nieuw aan Google is, dat het in moordend tempo de keuzen van individuen aftapt en daar gepersonaliseerde feedback op levert; het collectieve onderbewuste heeft een gigantische dynamiek gekregen en belangrijker: wordt 'bewuster' in de zin van 'plaatsvervangend' ten aanzien van het individuele bewustzijn, gestadig interactiever en alerter onze belevingswereld aanbiedend en onze keuzen 'makend'.

Dat Google dé kandidaat is om zich als evolutionair metabewustzijn te ontplooien, kan ook worden afgeleid uit de vondst, de kiem, waaruit Google is ontstaan: inzicht in de werking van het referentiesysteem (zichtbaar als onder meer het notenapparaat) dat het bedrijven van wetenschap structureert (de 'wetenschappelijke vooruitgang' regelt, zeg maar de 'kennismarketing') - van oudsher misschien wel hét vehikel van menselijke ontwikkeling en zelfbewustzijn -; uit het geniaal gelegde verband dus tussen accumulatie van wetenschappelijke kennis en de algoritme van de ultieme zoekmachine.

"Google" komt zoals bekend van de term "gogol" (tien tot de macht honderd, een immens getal, naar schatting zelfs ontelbaar keer groter dan het aantal elementaire deeltjes in het heelal), spontaan 'bedacht' door het negen jaar oude neefje van een wiskundige. Google steekt God naar de kroon wat betreft oneindigheid.

De Russische schrijver Nikolai Gogol schreef het beroemde boek "Dode zielen". Citaat: "As it is so strangely ordained in this world, what is amusing will turn into being gloomy, if you stand too long before it, and then God knows what ideas may not stray into the mind...". Denk aan de uitspraak van Harry Mulisch over de 'ultimitieven' die het metabewustzijn voortbrengen: "De beredderde plaats van de ultimitieven binnen het 'Het', zal niet als Marxistisch rijk van de vrijheid aangemerkt kunnen worden. Het kapitalisme zal tot het verleden behoren, maar de opheffing van de vervreemding zal betekenisloos zijn geworden; zoals aan de ultimitieven eigenlijk niets meer te sterven zal zijn, zo zal er ook niets meer zijn om 'vrij' te zijn, of dat ook maar te verlangen" [cursivering door mij; K].

De in Google geïntegreerde mens is alziend, alwetend, kan vliegen over de aarde als een vogel en straks waarschijnlijk het heelal doorkruisen als een engel. Tegelijk is deze goddelijkheid een spel van schone schijn, een illusie.

Zie ook
'The Terrifying Future of Computing' (8 januari 2008)
'Kladblognotities over de blog' (17 december 2006)
http://www.xs4all.nl/opinie/2007/10/08/via-web-20-op-weg-naar-superintelligentie
Interessant artikel over internet & metabewustzijn: 'Singularity Fallacies: An essay by Extropia DaSilva'

Why Pushing People to Code Will Widen the Gap Between Rich and Poor
Door Jathan Sadowski, Wired, 12 december 2013

Will Google's Greed Ruin the Internet?
By Jeffrey Chester, The Nation, October 6, 2007

In toekomstvisie Google zijn mensen als batterijen die de machine voeden
Door Sander Duivestein, Trouw, 18 januari 2014

9 Creepy Patents That Will Make You Worry About the Fate of Humanity
Door Iea Misra, io9 / AlterNet, 14 januari 2014

O.a. interactieve televisie die het gedrag van de kijkers monitort en via internet doorgeeft en vergaande monitoring van werknemers, me name van hun 'stressniveau'.

Google’s Grand Plan to Make Your Brain Irrelevant
Door Marcus Wohlsen, Wired, 27 januari 2014